From 494d4faf4e61691cfadf2cb2b1bf54e8f67d5b0e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Flancian <0@flancia.org>
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 2021 18:46:54 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] iap21

---
 epidemic-forecasting.md |  9 +++++++++
 iap21.md                | 11 +++++++++++
 journal/2021-01-27.md   |  1 +
 3 files changed, 21 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 epidemic-forecasting.md

diff --git a/epidemic-forecasting.md b/epidemic-forecasting.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..e96c21b40
--- /dev/null
+++ b/epidemic-forecasting.md
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+# Epidemic Forecasting
+
+- [[go]] epidemicforecasting.org
+- [[by]] [[oxford]]
+
+
+[//begin]: # "Autogenerated link references for markdown compatibility"
+[go]: go "Go"
+[//end]: # "Autogenerated link references"
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/iap21.md b/iap21.md
index 1d92d124f..fa04d79bd 100644
--- a/iap21.md
+++ b/iap21.md
@@ -90,6 +90,16 @@
 - [[quote]] [[inception]]: knitting the lacework - [[connecting sources]], [[queries, and outputs]]
   - Working with [[public knowledge graphs]], building new [[visualizations]] + [[overlays]]
 - [[agnes cameron]] presented an example of [[underlay, interlay, overlay]] reasoning in the field of [[food sustainability]].
+- [[blake elias]] [[ai research]] [[covid response]]
+  - is [[health]] vs [[economics]] a [[zero sum game]]?
+  - [[analysis]]: you can optimize for two things
+    - having the fewest covid cases
+    - optimize for economics
+  - it turns out that in simulation runs the two don't look that different.
+    - A Poisson distribution:
+    - future cases = random[(current cases) * (reproductive number) + (imported cases)]
+  - aside: [[epidemic forecasting]] 
+
 
 
 [//begin]: # "Autogenerated link references for markdown compatibility"
@@ -123,4 +133,5 @@
 [wikidata subsetting]: wikidata-subsetting "Wikidata Subsetting"
 [place subreddit]: place-subreddit "Place Subreddit"
 [2021-01-27]: journal/2021-01-27 "2021-01-27"
+[epidemic forecasting]: epidemic-forecasting "Epidemic Forecasting"
 [//end]: # "Autogenerated link references"
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/journal/2021-01-27.md b/journal/2021-01-27.md
index 114c3edf5..8d5e7b565 100644
--- a/journal/2021-01-27.md
+++ b/journal/2021-01-27.md
@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@
   - [[hypothesis roam bridge]]
 - [[cooperative problem solving]]
 - [[experiment]] [[control]]
+- [[iap21]]
 
 [//begin]: # "Autogenerated link references for markdown compatibility"
 [meet]: ../meet "Meet"